While filling out my bracket last month, the most difficult challenge I faced was figuring how many points North Carolina was going to win by at the National Championship game. The question wasn’t whether it would win the title but by how much.

When Villanova steps on the court Saturday for its game against North Carolina, the hardwood under the team’s feet will be quaking as a raucous Ford Field crowd will still be celebrating a win by home-state sweetheart Michigan State. The Nova players’ hearts will pound through their chests, and their hands will tremble.

North Carolina will take the same court and step on familiar boards. North Carolina is a big-time program that is used to big-time games. It played Michigan State in the same sold-out stadium on Dec. 13, 2008.

Villanova is the Cinderella team, the one that isn’t supposed to be here. The stage lights will be too bright in Detroit, and the clock will strike midnight, leaving the glass slipper unfilled.
After beating Villanova, UNC will face either UCONN or Michigan State.

If UCONN is able to beat Michigan State, UNC will face an opponent similar to Pitt, a team that beat them twice this season. When UCONN lost to Pitt, big man Hasheem Thabeet was out-muscled by Dejuan Blair, and the outside shot was wide open for Pitt.

In UNC, UCONN would face a tougher big man down low in Tyler Hansbrough and better guard play by future NBA draftee Ty Lawson.

Michigan State would meet a similar fate against UNC, as Coach Tom Izzo’s defensive style of crashing the boards would leave Lawson and UNC’s other perimeter shooters with free range on the outside.

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