A large majority of economists believe the recession is over, according to an article in the Chicago Tribune Monday.

The article cited a survey done by the National Association for Business Economics, which assessed a panel of 44 economists from Sept. 2 to Sept. 24 and found that 80 percent believed the recession is over and that a moderate recovery of the economy has begun.

Associate economics professor Carl Campbell said economists are saying this because industrial production seems to have stabilized, the rate of job losses has slowed and the stock market has risen significantly since March.

While the surveyed panel believes the gross domestic product will improve and the housing market will contribute to the growth, they say the unemployment rate and the federal deficit will stay in high figures.

“Even when a recession is over, unemployment continues to rise,” Campbell said. “The labor market is usually the last to recover.”

After other recessions, unemployment rates continued to rise for a significant period of time, Campbell said.

Stephen Karlson, associate professor of economics, said those who say the recession is over are only making conversation.

“We really don’t know it’s over until well after,” Karlson said.

Until two consecutive quarters of economic growth are recorded, economists can’t say for sure that the recession is over, Karlson said.

Campbell said he thinks the recession is probably over, but until data is released for the third quarter, which ended in September, we will not know indefinatly.

Junior communications major Tim Lydon said he doesn’t think the recession is over yet.
“Things are still expensive; they’re still raising taxes,” Lydon said. “Even though people are saying it’s over, it won’t feel like it is for a while.”

The recession may be over for some, but Campbell said this does not mean the economy is doing well.

“It seems the economy, while it is not doing well, has stopped the downward trend,” Campbell said.

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